Rising Star Meme #94 - How Superstition Works in RNG-based Games

"Let's give him another one", he said.
And I'll be like:

The other day I met this cool guy through my memes (yeah, the pinnacle of networking) and after a day or two, he mentioned something really interesting that I'd been avoiding talking about for quite some time. Maybe I have mentioned it somewhere down the road before, but let's officially get into it.
It is nothing other than...

Superstitons in RNGs

When I put the two words "RNG" and "Superstition" next to each other, the whole concept looks like a mere joke, but boy oh boy, you wouldn't believe that entire 'cults' are forming around this little concept.

And here, in this meme, I believe a bit of "meme-ical education" could be interesting :))

It all happened when this new friend of mine asked me the question "does switching between 5-min missions from different zones make them produce more rewards??" (as opposed to doing the first zone's mission 5 times and moving forward to the next one's)
If you're also a computer, statistics, or a math guy, you'd know this is a joke. But as a person who is all THREE of the above, I DO switch to another region after consecutive low rewards (kinda helps my subconscious cool off lol) but it's just a habit, and I'm like "HERE! I did it, now give me the good stuff" which is somewhat funny to me and I'd leave it at that xD

Other Sightings of This Idea

• I play one other game (called Genshin Impact - not an NFT game, btw) regularly that utilizes RNG mechanics to give players equipment or characters. The process is called "wishing" - you 'wish' and consume an in-game currency and are given a random weapon or character.
  The chance of getting the rarest character or weapon is 0.6% which is pretty low. Given how brutal acquiring even one wish could be and you have no official way of increasing the chances of getting what you want (other than trying - AKA repetition) some series of these 'rumors' or 'superstitions' have emerged.
  One of the popular ones is this:
  You'd have to go to the city, climb a giant statue which is there, sit in his hands, wait for right before midnight and wish then. It doesn't make any sense, tho. I mean, it IS free and doesn't cost you extra to do so, but HOPING and BELIEVING it to have any special effect is kinda hilarious (if the developers haven't said anything about it, that is). Just imagine the already overwhelmed developer trying to implement such mechanics to detect players doing that...

• Another one that most Rising Star players might be familiar with is how it is said that dragging your Splinterlands pack to the well and then rubbing it over around the 6 edges could increase the chances of you finding better cards.

Why These Beliefs Are So Popular?

First off, these draws are linked to some rare items in the games we like, so getting them or not makes a huge difference for us.
Second, there's nothing else we could do to increase our chances in many of these games (other than trying, which usually involves spending more in-game) and that's why little experiments are done by the players and some rumors are spread.

Confirmation Bias

But more importantly, it's how we psychologically perceive the outcome. I don't really know the name of it, but I think it falls into the Confirmation Bias category. You try the method, rub your pack around the well, and it doesn't give you anything good. Bummer, you weren't among the lucky few! But if you DO get something nice, you'd go around telling others about how it DOES work, and the cycle repeats! And since it doesn't cost anything, people wouldn't mind trying - just a few seconds of virtually rubbing your pack around the well wouldn't be the end of the world :))

Here's My Idea

I believe if you buy Rising Star packs and hold onto them and then open them after a couple of days have passed, you'd have more chances of getting rarer cards rather than someone who just buys packs and opens them right away.
IDK, haven't tested, haven't done anything. Seems stupid enough to fall into the category, and it needs some testing! A couple of players need to get some Legendaries and it will be the next big discovery in RSG lmao

Some Parting Words

Nothing really wrong with believing in this kinda stuff and doing them, but if it's stressing you out (I know I used to get stressed over this kinda stuff a loy long ago), I think you should stop! Just cast it into the wind and all! Your call at the end of the day, though!

But really, I'd say stick with the repetition method and you'd get what you want in time :D

Stay safe and keep away from stupid beliefs
Cheers~