RE: Superpower USA? Unipolar, bipolar or multipolar world?

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The US has suffered very rapid fertility decline since 2008 and now their TFR is only 1.6, which is pretty bad. Yes they still have immigration, but the quality is poor with large amounts of illegals they have lost control of their borders.

Civilisational decline is generally accompanied by monetary debasement, rather than obvious economic decline. Neither the British nor Roman Empire had obvious economic decline shortly before their fall.

A series of military failures also presages the decline of Empire and the USA certainly fits this. They haven't actually conclusively won even a mid-size war since WWII. Korean (draw), Vietnam (loss), Iraq I (partial win), Iraq II (loss), Afghanistan (loss), Ukraine (losing).

Thus the US does fit into the pattern of an Empire in decline.

Almost everything you write is well reasoned and rational so your completely unsupported polemic statement that Russian growth is dead cat bounce really stands out.

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The US has suffered very rapid fertility decline since 2008 and now their TFR is only 1.6, which is pretty bad.

  • Yes, that's one data point - that may have bad consequences some 20 years in the future. Russia's demography is currently bad over every single generation. Plus, their data are probably fake. Plus, they currently lose their future working population.

Civilisational decline is generally accompanied by monetary debasement, rather than obvious economic decline. Neither the British nor Roman Empire had obvious economic decline shortly before their fall.

  • Depending on when you date the fall of the Roman Empire, there were several economic declines, the worst spanned over nearly the whole third century AD (affecting population size and economic growth, plus severe currency debasement).

Concerning the dead cat bounce of Russia, let's wait for some months and then take a fresh look at the war. I currently see Russia losing on all fronts: morally, militarily, economically, demographically, losing influence in other countries (Armenia, some countries in Africa, due to less Wagner mercenaries).

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While some countries manipulate their economic data (eg China and the US), especially for short term political gains, I've never heard of any country faking or manipulating demographic data because:

  1. its much harder to do - babies are real things with real needs and consequences;
  2. their is no political gain, as voters pay little attention to this very important issue and some think less babies is better.

Russia showed a very substantial and clear increase in fertility (from a very low base of 1.2) from shortly after Putin took power for at least 15 years, peaking at 1.8, with a slight falling off to 1.6 recently). Indeed it is an extraordinary achievement that no other large country has been able to duplicate.

This big success and the methods used should be studied by Europe and East Asia to save themselves. But as usual, Russian achievements are rarely recognised by the self-obsessed and arrogant West.

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