RE: Did I Get Liquidated On My Short Position Against Bitcoin?
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I was hoping we would keep going up a bit more. That call for $42K or whatever it was still is kind of hanging over us though isn't it?
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I don't think we can rule it out and there are a lot of various signs I see that could indicate we are sort of over heated especially for a bull trap scenario.
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/fear-and-greed-index/
If you look at this usually every time we touch up in the green at the top then after that we retrace on price whether that is a pull back on the way to the top in a Bull market and that chart doesn't show the last bear market but as far as the line touching up in the green we see it usually heads back down to the Red Fear zones.
Also if you look at the trade volumes on that at the bottom these volumes recently have not been near what the volumes were in other scenarios where we are in that top green ban (Greed Zone).
Then once again we expand out on the CBBI which shows all 4 boom and bust cycles and gives a clear picture across all those metrics and we still haven't had that last violent leg down.
https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/
I just think there are still so many people disengaged from crypto currently. The masses haven't really came back and while some of the alts got a boost off the floor it hasn't been a crazy surge. DOGE from $0.06 to $0.10 type stuff.
The other factors in play are Strategy soaking up 4% of the total Bitcoin supply and selling shares to buy more which chokes supply but doesn't really move the needle on the order books necessarily.
He says Bitcoin can go to $5,000 and before he would get liquidated but that is likely an assessment of how much Strategy is worth and if they could then sell stock at those numbers. When everything deflates the scenario might be different. Who fully knows.
My biggest thing is I don't want to fake you or anyone else out and I don't want to fake myself out. Could the 4 year cycle and that last draw down not happen and the chart is now broken because of the ETFs and the broader financial markets needing to put their money somewhere besides fiat currencies? It's possible.
But I also have been pretty decent at feeling the pulse of things and when I'm in the Trenches on FOMO I feel like it is a more isolated party and we are seeing line extension and line extension and it is tough for a lot of these newer memes to keep volumes and attention for even a couple of days. It's insane out there and usually when I see that it is close to a cool off period because everything is getting way too over heated.
A couple other metrics that are shocking are the fact that now there are over 61 Million Cryptos. Hundreds of thousands launched each days.
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/number-of-cryptocurrencies-tracked/
If you go to the All time charts for a couple of those there has just been an explosion because if you look in 2016 and 2018 there would be days with 0 or maybe 1 new project launched. Now hundreds of thousands are launched each day.
It just really distracts from blue chip alts and from Bitcoin.
So I see reasons why Bitcoin could be in a global takeover scenario and I can see reasons why we would have a violent leg down before we continue on to new all time highs in 2029.
I sort of think we have another week of heavy Meme trench action before the wind gets knocked out of it for a bit.
Do you think that crypto will ever recover? I really hope so. I've been sitting on some satoshi's for a bit now and right now the price along with the potential drop to the $40K range makes me wonder if I should move a bit into a stable coin so I can buy back in at the right time.
Yeah, i think Bitcoin will likely go to $160K at least by the end of 2029.
I accurately said multiple times last cycle that I was only banking on $120K Bitcoin and we went to $126K so that was a solid projection. Way better than the guys predicting $250K or $350K tops for last cycle.
I do feel like there will be continued distractions partially away from just Bitcoin which will limit it and while it seemed that for a minute people were excited for Lightning Network, Runes, Ordinals .... we aren't hearing as much about that. Lightning network transactions partially confuse people.
All that being said I can understand someone holding BTC and trying to put the blinders on and just keep stacking but also i understand wanting to stay in USDC for a bit for the lower entry.
For me personally I have to be more active currently and trade around in the trenches and take the risk of getting sidelined on a trade or having something pump and run away from me.
I get if someone doesn't need the money to just keep stacking and fight through the pain of the dips.