Price Predictions From The SPS Chart (DYORLOL)

I like charts. I used to think they couldn't possibly predict anything but after watching them for many years, it's hard not to be impressed not just with the predictive power of price but also how well world events often line up.

Now some chart setups are stronger than others. For instance recently I came across the Doge chart at $0.11 and it was just screaming that it wanted to go to 18 or 19 cents.

I bought $2000 worth at $0.11 and put in my sell order for $0.18 and tried to just forget about it. Within a few weeks I got the notification that my sell order went through. I took that profit and sent it over to buy Algorand NFT's because why not?

The top tick was $0.1804 and then dropped hard immediately. I sold at $0.18.

Do I have any idea what's going on with Doge? Nope. Do I know what sent it up for those few minutes? Nope. Do I know why it didn't stay up there? Nope. Did I look for a single article or reddit post on Doge before I bought? Nope. Don't care.

I saw something two days after I sold attributing the up move to Elon Musk buying part of Twitter. That seems really stupid to me if that's what did it and clearly the market agreed because they sold it back off immediately. Funny how it happens though. Chart says price is going to run and where it's running to. It does it. They come out with a reason later.

A lot of people try to force charts and get it wrong because they always have to be in a trade so they take weak set ups or they get in and when it doesn't move when they think it should they bail early only to watch it do what the chart said it was going to do.

That Doge chart I just happened across and knew immediately I had to be in it. That doesn't happen very often so I don't trade very often. I used to try to trade constantly and I'd get wrecked.

There's also a lot of false moves. Everyone will think something is going to happen so price breaks the other way and shakes everyone out for a loss before taking off where it originally told everyone it was going to go. That actually seems to happen more and more now with bots doing most of the trading and you can see it in the SPS chart below.

Anyway, this SPS chart has similar characteristics as the Doge chart but its not as strong to me so while it might play out, it's not a trade I'd jump into. This is just fun speculation.

I eat crayons and this is not financial advice. It's just for fun. I'm not changing anything about my strategy because of this chart. You certainly shouldn't.

OK so let's talk about what's going on. First you see the big ramp up. Remember how happy we all were? I do.

Then of course Splinterlands spent months collapsing in on itself because some excuse that has nothing to do with the game itself or its economy as I'm told often.

You'll notice the price heading lower as the trend lines wedge the up and down swings into a progressively more narrow space.

Price was heading to that $0.10 psychological level that was created in the SPS presale but most of us didn't know that. I did see a few of you predict a bottom at $0.10. I think @bitcoinflood did in a post months ago if I remember correctly. (If it wasn't you sorry about the ping lol)

Wedges usually breakout when they are about 80% to the apex of the two trend lines. If you bought the chart based only on the wedge where it was most likely to break out out but missed that RSI was still dropping and realize that price was so close to that $0.10 psychological floor that it was probably going to make a visit, you would have gotten wrecked as it made a sudden fake breakdown to go visit $0.10 and bottom out that RSI.

See though after the fake breakdown how the candles returned neatly back into the wedge before breaking out finally? I love this stuff.

Anyway, when price broke to the upside it created a new upward parallel channel that it should have stayed inside for a while. But then land got pushed back and Dec rewards got doubled and the game started falling back into the abyss and took SPS with it.

With price already at the $0.10 psychological floor, there wasn't a lot of room for it to fall. This meant RSI never dropped out again like it did in the fakeout breakdown and that led to that bullish divergence in the RSI on this latest downtrend wedge its building now.

Notice we didn't have that the whole way down in the mega drop from from $1 down to $0.10 but we do now.

Since we're talking about that bullish divergence I'm just going to have to you take a look at that RSI and how many patterns came together between it and price.

I just find it incredible how the birth of the new uptrend was built deep in the middle of the down trend and then it wasn't until just two weeks ago that it broke out from the downtrend and into the uptrend it had been forming for months but treating as a secondary pattern.

See where the top green line and top white line converge and how RSI just had to run and tag it right where they met? That's just incredible to me. Then looking at how price at this point was in a totally new set of patterns but still RSI had to play that out. And people say you can't chart RSI. That's just crazy to me.

Anyway, if you look past all the nerd stuff, the takeaway is that We now have full bullish divergence. Price is bouncing around all time lows and right back at that psychological floor and meanwhile RSI is in an upward channel that started to form six months ago.

Bullish divergence usually has a limit to how diverged it can get before price follows and we have a nice amount of energy built up that looks ready to pop soon. Even though the RSI broke the downtrend, you can see that when it came back below the white line it immediately tested it again and failed.

So now we have:

• RSI and price wedging
• Support of the $0.10 floor
• Bullish divergence

So let's look at my price prediction. I'll repost the chart so you do't have to keep scrolling up.

If it weren't for that building bullish divergence I'd think price would probably run to that first red line but the divergence makes me think we may have a bit of a rocket ship.

Still that old channel it tried to be in before the collapse in price I think will end up being the resistance point as the RSI maxes out its channel and price takes a break.

With any luck, that red line will become support so we'll get a bounce there. At this time much of the chart energy will have dissipated so I think it might take a few tries at the channel and fail a few times.

But...

Aww, look at that 200 day moving average. It's brand new. Not even a month old. In a couple months that $1 ramp will no longer be factored into the 200 day MA at all so it will keep falling for a while. I didn't math it out but its incredible how these things usually end up lining up so I'm going to assume it happens again.

So right around the end of June the 200 day MA, the channel it tried to create but failed, and the red line from the first floor when price collapsed the first time will all converge and I think it will act like a magnet for price. Price likes a party.

After that if nothing gets messed up, I think it will keep trying to get that channel back and it may do it or the devs might decide that the only thing better than 3 billion SPS is 6 billion SPS and it will collapse again.

OK, let's talk about other non chart factors that could have this play out.

The validator talk is ramping up. Devs said "maybe don't stake all your SPS now if you want to buy one" so that's upward pressure.

Next this will be the point where the airdrop is still going and so no one will expect that it can go up which in itself is enough for an asset to move. Markets love to make everyone wrong.

Rift Watchers will make people all excited.

And that's it.

I'm again, like an idiot, predicting the devs won't screw this up and price will move higher. Because I am a glutton for punishment.

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