Splinterlands: Dynamic CP Requirements To Fix Supply Issues

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This is basically just going to end up being a series I think. Things Splinterlands can do to absorb some of this supply since they insist on continuing to print beyond what is needed.

Quick Recap:

  1. The game hasn't grown its active player count in 7 months.
    Screen Shot 20220513 at 11.50.06 PM.png

  2. We already have way too much supply

  3. There's only about 1/3 of CL packs opened which means 50 million more cards coming.

  4. We're less than halfway through the current rewards cards run and cards are already going for $.01 cent.

  5. They are about to release a whole other rewards card run with an equal number of cards as the last one.

  6. Rift Watchers is coming soon which is a 10x size mint compared to Dice

  7. Rebellion which will be at least the size of CL is set to release late this year or early next even if CL doesn't sell out

Meanwhile the total card market cap has gone down almost every single day straight since November even though we've probably added 50% more cards to the game since then. That means for every card that comes out, other cards are losing more value than that card adds.

Screen Shot 20220513 at 11.42.15 PM.png

Devs see no reason not to continue doing the same thing they've been doing. @aggroed says things like you can't look at the market day to day, you have to look quarter by quarter. Well, here's a chart of 2 quarters showing you what's happening and its being ignored.

So I'm coming up with ideas to help absorb some of these. If you read this and you like any of them, feel free to write your own posts or ask for it in the town hall or suggest it in the discord or suggest your own ideas or just generally let it be known that what is going on is unacceptable to you as a stakeholder.

Yesterday I wrote about land and how it would be most effective at absorbing cards.

Land is at least a year away it seems and there's really no reason for the game to flounder until then. Plus with as much as they are printing, we're going to need more than land to absorb it all so I present an idea that could be implimented when the new rewards system comes out.

Change the CP requirements for ranked play to a dynamic model.

Screen Shot 20220514 at 12.58.44 AM.png

Right now it takes 500,000 CP to play in Champion league. And if you're sitting in bronze, that might sound like a lot. It's not really. You can buy that right now for about $1200. Or you can rent. Of course that's not an optimized deck for that price but in terms of CP, its not hard to get to the highest level of this game.

Probably more importantly than that though, if you look at players with the most CP, you can see that they are many multiples past this.

I took this list of players with the most CP from peakmonsters.

Screen Shot 20220514 at 12.58.20 AM.png

As you can see, none of these people are struggling to hit the 500k figure.

The thing is, the available CP in this game goes up daily. Meanwhile, the amount of players buying CP does not.

So, if CP is getting more saturated in the game, why should league play requirements be static?

My proposal is to make league play CP requirements dynamic. Every 30 days a calculation is done that determines the amount of CP in the game divided by the number of active accounts.

If that number goes up, we increase the CP requirements for all ranked play leagues. If more players join than CP was created, the price to enter a league goes down.

The players CP eligibility for the league is based on a 30 day average of their playable CP.

This would even out the end of season vs the beginning of season rental pricing as a bonus because if you're renting for league placement its now an average over multiple seasons instead of needing any single day. Since the first day of a season and the last are both just another day in the average, players can rent more on cheap days and less on expensive days until the whole thing just evens out eventually.

Hey, look, season pricing is fixable. :shrug

In the beginning I think it's all reworked with higher requirements since there has been so much CP added to the game recently and no new players. It needs to go up.

I think we also make the biggest changes in the top leagues to not further demoralize the beginning players. The whales can handle it. They own all the cards. We just saw that on the list I posted.

In the end, if we're going to have more and more CP and no new players, let's make the CP necessary for the game.

Of course if they took my land suggestion and a ton of CP goes to land, that would be considered taken out of the game while it was staked on land which would lower the requirement for various leagues in the same way it would adjust if new players came in faster than CP was bring printed.

That's the idea. What do you think?

Did I miss something glaringly obvious? Do you have further suggestions for this idea? Do you have your own ideas? I'd love to hear them.

I have a couple more of these posts about fixing supply in other ways coming up. Probably next week. Might get one done over the weekend. We'll see.

Again, if you want to see the team stop putting out insane amounts of supply, please speak up. So many people have told me they agree that supply is way too much but people aren't speaking up and the devs don't seem to be listening. If you have a stake in this game, stand up and tell them what you think.

They have some great ideas. They just need to balance their supply demand problem for the rest to flourish.

Screen Shot 20220514 at 1.55.06 AM.png
This was once $200k and I've added a bunch of cards since then. I know I'm not alone in this. It's time they listen.

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As a player with only 80,000 owned power, I know that I spent a fair chunk of coin to get to 20,000 - and from there, it was easy. We need to see player base go up, and cards being combined to maximum level - that will certainly help the supply issues. Your plan looks sound, BUT - one of my things is, I like having a GOAL card power total to hit - if there were moving goal posts - it would de-incentivise me to try and buy more. In truth, I expected to be at 100,000 card power by the end of the current season, but with the price of HIVE so low, I didn't end up converting it to DEC.

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Thanks for the perspective. It's definitely not an ideal solution for everyone but this is a big reason why I think the biggest changes need to happen at the highest leagues and not where people are struggling to get to the next levels.

I do think there should be some changes at lower leagues when they've added so much CP but left the requirements alone completely but the changes would be much smaller since there are so many people at those levels so even a 10% change could add up amongst the whole group.

And, if we ever get more players, which should be the goal of the team, requirements would go down which might just free up some of your deck for the rental market.

Ultimately it is about about getting new players. Combining cards is great but they are coming at such a rapid pace that combining only does so much. Bots are renting hundreds the same level 1 cards at once which is pretty much the same as combining.

When they came out with these current rewards cards they tried to sell the big print size by saying if you combined all the cards, each of these new cards would have "just" 18k maxed copies. For perspective, furious chicken has 27k copies in various combined forms. It's the most played card in the game by a big margin in all leagues and there are 6200 sitting unrented and and another 200 unsold on the market right now. You can rent one for $0.20 per YEAR right now. Would we EVER need 18k maxed out Venari Heatsmiths? But whether we need them or not, the CP is there. And when you max them we get 5% more CP added into the game.

Anyway, I think if we want to get more people playing, we have to get card prices going up. And that means we need to create reasons for people to buy, and we need to come together and get the devs to stop diluting the game.

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(Edited)

Great ideas, what do you think about the new reward changes? I think it has the potential to solve a lot of the problems in the game. Id advise buying the new reward cards be4 they spike, djinn chwala, oshannus, biljka, harklaw are main ones I acquired to achieve this. 184% avg ROA today on rental portfolio.

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Nice numbers! I'm onto the rewards cards for rentals thing. I've been buying them up and maxing them when I see a good deal. They have an easy 100-120% apr without the end of season boosts. Then again, I bought a lot of cards last year that had that kind of APR and now they are going for 15% apr so I'm not loading up too much. Things change quickly.

I really didn't set myself up well for this end of season. Usually I try to pull out at least 50-60k dec. I'm getting soft on people and not canceling rentals as much because DEC is too low for me to justify ruining someones day.

Is there a reason you believe these cards will spike?

As far as the new rewards, I'm unconvinced. I think they are actually going to make a lot of problems even worse and I just don't see the ghost cards as that big of drain. The way I see it, the ghost cards are the super abundant cards that you can rent all day for .1 DEC or $0.0001 and only matter in the lower leagues anyway.

If these accounts rent 15 or 20 cards at this price per day it's a $0.002 contribution to the economy. Meanwhile it's going to be a bot bonanza. 30 chests per day, 150 chests per season. Dec rewards optimized and all they have to do is pay in 2/10ths of a cent per day to upgrade their rewards to all that? Even if they go full gold cards and pay $0.50 per day, they are going to take far more out than they put in or they wouldn't be bots.

I think the print rate for rewards cards is going to skyrocket. Bots are going to multiply and farm harder and send even more assets from mint to market even faster. It's going to further inflate the amount of CP in the game and prices will fall faster than they can print the new cards just like they have been for 7 months. Just faster now. That means no new players to absorb anything but cards being printed at the fastest rate ever and for the slimmest margin.

I don't know man, I'm not sure how it actually solves anything.

Maybe you can convince me.

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We have to remember when you and I were buying cards last year, we were buying at much lower cp per usd rates, I started game august, and when I started accumulating cp in maybe sept, it was around 50 to 60 cp per usd. The price peaked out around 20-30 cp per usd before chaos legion dropped.

When I was accumulating recently it was between a pricerange of 300 cp per usd and 450 cp per usd, depending on card utility. Prices have started to move, as I just checked best prices are now between 300 cp per usd and 350 cp per usd. Considering what Ive seen in the market in my under a year here, I would say we are likely headed to a 100-200 cp per usd range once the market settles after reward updates. The cards I bought werent just a great cp price, but also had great rental markets, and I see them always being strong, one in particular, Djinn Chwala, I bought over 2000 cards, thorns at lvl 1, does that ever get old? Djinn Oshannus, I overlooked this card until I started playing against him maxxed in diamond league, truly a monster off tank. I grabbed a good amount of gold foils and regular of him.

I think the hidden value might still be gold foils, people are underestimating the effect of having those gold foil bonuses on their reward shares, and multiple of them. Mark my words if you look back at this in July <3

Time will tell, Until then, Im doing amazing with rentals, never been so lucrative, and getting great sps airdrop while it lasts from them, 310 sps airdrop and had just cards pretty much, been swapping dec/sps out for hive while hive is cheap.

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Yeah, I've been reworking my ideas about the game and where its going.

I've been writing about the supply glut for a while now and the damage of bots. But I think they are about to turn it on its head and very possibly have a growth spurt that continues where we left off in October. I think there's a chance we hit 2 million daily active users by the end of the year while its been stuck at 350k-400k for 7 months. Of that we might get 100k new players and the rest will be bots. But for now, I don't have a problem with that because just like it did last year, it's going to bring in the investors.

While I've suggested in the past that they get rid of starter cards, I thought of it then as one of many things they would need to do to bring supply under control since the supply glut is so huge and there are so many more cards set to come out. With 350k daily actives, taking the starter cards away moves the needle but barely.

However, when you include a massive reward bump that will see bots expand to double or triple the accounts in a few months, you suddenly get to the point where you run out of cards to use. Splinterlands could very quickly become a game with scarce assets. I can't believe I'm saying that. Add in some investor excitement and I can't imagine what happens. Splinterlands has never seen a supply shortage.

I think by the time we get to Rift Watchers (August), there's a chance that the game is starved for cards instead of drowning in them. If that's the case and they are only available in SPS, expect SPS to run.

There's a lot going on right now. I'm readjusting my whole strategy. In a week I've gone from wanting to sell everything to thinking you're right and they just solved a lot of problems. I've started buying rare cards again for cheap and those high CP low value rewards cards. I'm also loading up on some packs and picking up the CL cards I see a lot of in lower leagues. All those bot cards that right now are cheap but have the potential to be huge rentals.

I don't think theres a bad way to go right now but what you're doing sounds well thought out and like its going to pay off. 2000 Djinn Chwala is awesome. I think the only thing you might regret is getting rid of SPS at .09 but maybe its a good idea to diversify out in case things don't go quite as well as it seems like they will.

For me, I'm stacking SPS. I'm getting about 375 per day right now. Majorly boosted it by selling a single card the other day for $1200 and holding the DEC. Makes me wish I'd sold everything a while ago and just collected 3000 SPS a day for the last year.

So many people just unstaked SPS for the validator sale that the APR went from 24% up to 62% so I'm banking there too. I want 100k SPS before the airdrop ends. I see a world where the ramp in the game, Rift Watchers, and the validator sales send SPS up to a few dollars and at 100k SPS if it gets to $0.60 I could sell and cover my entire investment in this game.

Have you invested in psyberx?

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Just a FYI the apr didnt go up because of unstaking, they are just including the value of voucher income also which is income from staking sps. Im not really into shooters to be honest, im more of strategy, rpg gamer for most part, I am looking at it for opportunities to invest, but it seems very high in price for no game yet, Im excited for a lot of games right now on hive, lots of stuff coming from the established games!

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I noticed the voucher in the claim window now but I didn't think of that. I also didn't see them mention the change to the APR in the release notes and I could swear its moving up faster right now that it was. Could totally be my imagination though. Have you seen them say this somewhere?

I have no intention of playing the shooting portion of PsyberX.

I have a pretty good position but I traded for most of it. I bought a few hundred thousand LVL and then just traded it up to about 1.5 million. Now there are bots and such but for a while it was very easy to add 40-50k LVL per day just trading the spread. I decided to spend 500k lvl on the commercial land plot because either the game comes out and I own one of 50 giant plots or the game doesn't come out and I own 500k worthless LVL tokens.

For me I'm getting excited about the idea of building a team, outfitting them, and starting a few businesses for my gangs to run. Crates just came out and they offered 400k LVL to the first person to buy a crate and get a legendary card. I traded in 400k LVL, bought 25 crates, got the card and they replaced my LVL lol. But it's one of those games where if it launches and does half of what they say it will, the token could do very well. If it doesn't, it's not that much money. And so far, the team has been pretty punctual with deadlines and responsive to the community.

What upcoming game are you most excited about?

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