The LVL Token: How Much Could It Be Worth?

Nothing here is financial advice. It's my dumb opinions. If you are prone to taking anything I say as financial advice, you should throw your device into the ocean. It'll be cheaper.

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LVL is the token that will be running Hive native first person shooter and world builder: PsyberX.

The team has made some very big and impressive promises. While no one can ever be sure if those promises will come to fruition, I have to say I'm impressed so far by the organization and community building that is being done by the team.

I recently have been hanging out in the Discord and the passion for the game is very real and infectious.

I've made no secret about the fact that I am well invested into this game. As I posted about recently, I currently hold the titles of Tier 3 founder, Land Baron, and a LVL millionaire!

I recently surpassed 1.1 million LVL which I use to mostly annoy @bobthebuilder2 with my constant trading lol.

Besides the 1.18 million LVL I've also spent an additional 500k LVL on commercial land (sold out), and 200 hive on 2 starter kits which give me two smaller plots of land and a couple very limited edition NFT's.

BTW, if you're thinking about getting a starter kit, do it before the marketplace opens.

Not only is it significantly cheaper now but you get a bunch of cool bonuses that will be gone after the Marketplace opens on May 13th.

OK, but why am I so invested in this game?

If you read anything I ever write you know I am very skeptical by nature. The first rule of investing is limit your downside risk. Especially in the crypto space, the very first question you should always be asking yourself about any potential investment is what can go wrong?

In stocks there's a form in the prospectus just for this that every company and fund legally has to include. It's often just pages of all sorts of random things that could materially affect the company negatively. Most of it you will look at and shrug off because it's highly unlikely but it's still important that you read it.

Crypto doesn't have that. Crypto often ends up with cheerleading tribes who honestly aren't great investors and think everything they touch will eventually moon because "SOOO EARLY".

Or, they just troll everything which also isn't helpful.

What I usually write about when I'm tearing down Splinterlands, for instance, are the things I can't ignore. The red flags that stand out to me as not just possible to go wrong but already going wrong and highly likely to cause damage. And I'm usually right.

I'm not writing about the little stupid things that could go wrong but likely won't and wouldn't cause much damage if they did. You'll always be able to find a problem with everything if you try hard enough and you'll never invest in anything.

The point in that question when you invest in something isn't to scare yourself out of investing or to nitpick. It's to play a few scenarios though your head and ask what if and then determine what the probabilities are of it being catastrophic.

It's to think about the unintended consequences. It's to level your head so you don't blindly cheerlead a poorly led project or something that is fundamentally broken from the start.

While there's always potential for bad to happen, you need to ask yourself how likely the bad thing is, how damaging it would be, and how that compares to the upside potential.

For me, I look for investments to have at least a 20% chance to succeed. That might sound crazy because it implies an 80% failure rate but I'm only looking to invest in most things if I think that 20% chance is for a 10x or more.

So let's talk about LVL and Psyberx with that lens.

Psyberx has made HUGE promises.

The game itself is incredibly ambitious and the team has made no secret about the fact that this is beyond anything they've ever done.

They are talking about competing with blockbuster multiBILLION dollar games that have been built by the juggernauts of the gaming industry. They plan to do it with a relatively small team and low funding.

Next, they are promising to open the gates to a million players.

*Editing note: @bobthebuilder2 pointed out to me in the comments that they haven't promised 1 million people but instead stated it as a goal.

By way of comparison, Splinterlands has 400k players and really I think its pretty safe to say 3/4 of those are bots run by just a few people.

That means Psyberx is promising to onboard 10x the amount of players Splinterlands has taken years to build and they want to do it on day one.

Impossible? No. Likely to happen? Also No. Could it happen? Sure.

Finally, the game isn't launched yet but its already incredibly whale heavy and this could be damaging to both the game play and the reputation of the game.

Consider that I currently hold just over .2% of the entire supply of LVL (.5% of what's been released so far) and I am 30th on the rich list. The top holder has over 17.5x what I'm holding.

How is that going to make players feel who are getting killed by people who can easily afford all the best of everything? Probably not great. I can see all the crying on reddit now as people console each other about the evil whales like they do with Splinterlands and basically everything else.

If that's all not enough to give you pause, you and your money are probably easily parted.

But again, I want to look at it through a lens of does this game have a 20% or greater chance to return at least 10x?

And the answer to that for me is yes. Let me tell you why I'm freaking excited about this game and it's potential to both change the game for hive, NFT based games, and my wallet.

The game is a first person shooter meets world builder. It's a place where droves of people from all over the world can get together and battle it out for cash (LVL) before going and having a beer together to laugh about it or discuss better strategy for next time.

When the game launches it will be a game reminiscent of Fortnite. An arena based first person shooter that pits teams of 50 vs 50 against each other with one team being victorious.

This is already a proven model.

People love first person shooters. It's a team sport. Plus it will stream well.

While it's a fortnite like FPS, the game does have two major structural differences from Fortnite.

1. Your armor, weapons, and special abilities are NFT's you will own, rent, or have delegated to you.
2. You will use LVL to ante into playing the game. Players buy their life to play the round with LVL and the winners take the pot at the end.

It's like poker except it's a first person shooter where you and your teammates, skill, and access to weapons, armor, and special abilities will earn you money.

This has e-Sports written all over it but more on that later.

Once the game launches, the devs begin phase two which is the world building aspect.

This is where the 10k plots of land plus the 50 plots of much larger commercial land come in.

While the idea seems to still be in development, it sounds like nothing is off the table. The team is going to be developing assets land owners can use to build on their plots. These builds can be used to create a business, an attraction, or just a place for people to hang out when they aren't murdering.

Also, these plots can be set by the owner to safe zones and kill zones which determine if people hanging out there need to watch their backs or not.

I believe land is where we're going to start getting some real "metaverse" elements like being able to sell or use NFT's from other games inside Psyberx.

I've said this several times but I can't wait to be able to sell products I create in dCrops on my land in Psyberx.

Everything that goes on here from buying your way into a game to buying better armor, weapons, and special abilities will use the LVL token so now let's get into the tokenomics.

Tokenomics

There are 500 million LVL tokens. That's it. Forever.

They were all minted when the token was created. The first phase was to sell 250 million tokens to help fund development of the game. There are roughly 54 million of those tokens left to sell.

Once those are sold, that's it to be sold to the general public.

The other 250 million will stay in the developers account for future development of Psyberx as well as other game that will also use the LVL token.

This means not all the 500 million tokens will be used inside of Psyberx which adds additional utility to the token.

One Million

One of the big goals and promises from the devs is that they want to get over 1 million players in the door on day one.

So you have 250 million tokens on the market and 1 million players piling through the door needing to get some tokens to get started.

That means 250 tokens exist per player. Of course that doesn't take into account all of that 250 million are already held by investors like me.

So, all that will be available is what early investors are willing to part with and at the price they demand in order to do that parting. For me that price is $1 before the first token is sold.

If we take a look at the market today we can see that only 2.7 million LVL on hive-engine for sale and another 18 million are sitting in liquidity pools on tribaldex.

With 200 million sold into the market by Psyberx already, that means just 1.3% of the public supply is for sale. Then another 9% could be accessed with enough cash.

Let's assume that when prices start really moving more people will be willing to sell and we'll see double that (20%) on the market.

That means 20% of the total supply of 250 million tokens will be accessible the 1 million new players coming in at some price. That's 1 million people fighting for 50 million tokens. What's that push the price up to? A buck? $2-3 maybe?

Impossible to say. It depends on how much people are willing to let them go for vs how much people are willing to pay but one thing is pretty certain. If 1 million people come in fighting for 50 million tokens, the price is going up big time.

Other problems?

But what about the other problems I mentioned?

Let's start with the smallest one first.

The whales.

The top investor in the game currently has 17.5 million tokens. At #30 on the richlist I have about 1.2 million and number 50 on the list has over 500k.

That's a lot of tokens for a few people to have in a game where its looking like scarcity is going to be quite real.

Also, while there are 10k plots of land, that's nothing when you consider 1 million players.
Even worse, the commercial plots which are something like 20x bigger are limited to just 50 plots.

So what does this look like in practice?

Warlords!

Imagine this. You have a nice chunk of land and one million LVL tokens. You can afford just about anything you want in the game but there's only so much you can equip on yourself.

Oh but this is a team sport.

What do you do? Start forming your gang. Open up a lodge/hangout for your gang on your land, buy a crap ton of weapons, armor, and special abilities, and start recruiting and delegating to fight the rival warlords' gangs.

That's real e-Sports.

The most skilled players will be woo'd and fought over. They'll be given the assets they need to make the kill and be paid handsomely for their service to the gang. It will be very valuable to be a top player in this game because you'll have someone bankrolling you.

Whales will be in the business of team building and offering as much up as they can to top players. And in this post-apocalyptic, cyber-punk world of gangs, I think that's going to make the game that much more interesting.

But it won't just be the best killers who will be recruited. Gangs will be running businesses and they'll need savvy business people. They'll need designers. They'll need community managers and marketers. People to analyze the battles to see what works and who should be where and who should have which weapon or who isn't pulling their weight.

You won't be trying to level up your barracks for advantages over your rival teams. You'll actually be using your own creativity and network to create your own advantages.

Businesses will bring wealth to both the warlord whales and the teams they recruit. And the more lucrative these criminal empires are, the more people will want to be on those teams in all the roles.

If a few whales start building these empires and sharing the profits the way they should, it will soon mean everyone will have to or they'll risk losing their top players to other teams.

So when I think of the game that way, I'm not really concerned with the whales. This is going to be a great time!

Promises, promises...

Now let's look at the biggest issue. The devs have promised a lot and might not have the experience to pull it off.

This is the primary risk.

If no game -or a poor quality game- comes out, the LVL token and the land all just goes to zero.

It's a very real possibility that needs to be considered.

For me though, this falls in the bounds of the 20% pass rate.

I've watched the team closely and I'm impressed. I know the task at hand is monumental. I know if they pull it off its going to take years from the full vision to come about.

But I've been watching the crypto space for years and it is filled with amateurs in the worst possible meanings of the word. There is a total lack of understanding of basic economics, marketing, human psychology, or unintended consequences.

So when I see a team that knows how to network, keep the energy up for 6 months, and understand how to cycle news and releases to keep people interested, I pay attention.

If I'm honest, in the beginning I was thinking they were so good at it that I was starting to think possible scam. But more and more I'm convinced that this is an honest attempt to do something big by a competent team.

At the end of the day, they've shot for the stars here and a failure might be landing on the moon. If they for instance launched to 100k or even 50k players vs 1 million? I'd say that's a pretty successful launch.

Would I give them a 20% chance of getting something impressive out there that attracts enough players to put some buying pressure on the token? Yes, I would.

But what about the 10x or greater qualification?

Well right now the token is sitting at .001 hive. I'm sitting here talking about the possibility of it getting to $2-3.

For a 10x all it needs to do is get to 1 cent.

2 Cents in a 20x

10 cents is a 100x

and $5 is a 5000x gain.

All of these and more are possible.

God's Unchained is another coin with 500 million units and it hit $8 in December.
Although they have not minted most of the supply yet so its not a great comparison.

So what's my current goal?

I want 2 million LVL.

Remember the total supply is only 500 million so 2 million makes you a monster if this thing takes off.

Why do I want 2 million? Because if LVL hits $1, I want to sell half for $1 million to build my beach house. Then I want to use the other half -and my commercial lot- to build my criminal empire.

If you haven't yet. You should join the Discord. They give out airdrops randomly all day. Great way to learn more and accumulate some free coin.

Not financial advice. Hamster.

Posted Using LeoFinance ^Beta