RE: Superpower USA? Unipolar, bipolar or multipolar world?

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I think you need to judge Empires by what they leave behind when they fall or leave.

On this basis the British Empire is by far the most benevolent Empire as it left behind, the civil, service, law and courts, the basics of democracy, tea and cricket.
See India, USA, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Kenya and even Israel and South Africa.

In contrast the United States has left behind chaos and ashes.
See Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Vietnam (for a long time after the war).

The Belgians also left a huge mess.

The Romans left behind a valuable legacy too, but I think the British record is the best because of the way they handed over the keys to Empire (to the USA) in a gracious, orderly manner. One might argue that the Eastern Roman Empire did the same, but the Western Roman Empire clearly collapsed.

In contrast, the USA is behaving like a petulant child who has lost his toy in dealing with its decline and loss of power and influence.

While I agree with you that stability is important, it is also important to acknowledge that all Empires rise and fall and that the USA in clearly in long term civilisational decline on every measure.

China is rising or has already peaked (because of terrible fertility) and Russia is rising again. Clearly its nadir was in 1989 and it has expanded considerably both geographically (re-conquering parts of Georgia, Crimea and now eastern Ukraine) and creating strong bonds with former Soviet states such as Belorusia, Turkmenistan, Kazakstan etc.

But the biggest, most important and often forgotten rising power is India.
Already the largest population, largest democracy, 3rd largest economy (PPP basis) and 5th largest (GDP basis) and fastest growing major power both demographically and economically.

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On this basis the British Empire is by far the most benevolent Empire as it left behind, the civil, service, law and courts, the basics of democracy, tea and cricket.
See India, USA, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Kenya and even Israel and South Africa.
In contrast the United States has left behind chaos and ashes.
See Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Vietnam (for a long time after the war).

  • I agree that the British Empire was rather benevolent for many reasons, though there were some dark sides (Boer Wars, Amritsar massacre, etc.). And the US (as every superpower) had/has its dark moments as you mention. But the US facilitated global trade for every country that wasn't hostile to them, helped rebuild countries after wars, still symbolizes democracy and capitalism.

that the USA in clearly in long term civilisational decline on every measure.

  • This is not so clear. Civilizational declines are accompanied by population and economy shrinkage. None of that happens to the US. They still attract immigrants from all over the world and have a relatively sound demography. Morally I see a decline since the early 1990s, but that could or should be transitory.

China is rising or has already peaked (because of terrible fertility) and Russia is rising again. Clearly its nadir was in 1989 and it has expanded considerably both geographically (re-conquering parts of Georgia, Crimea and now eastern Ukraine) and creating strong bonds with former Soviet states such as Belorusia, Turkmenistan, Kazakstan etc.

  • Russia's expansion since 1989 is a dead cat bounce, and the relations to Turkmenistan and Kazakstan are yet to be tested.

But the biggest, most important and often forgotten rising power is India.
Already the largest population, largest democracy, 3rd largest economy (PPP basis) and 5th largest (GDP basis) and fastest growing major power both demographically and economically.

  • I agree (plus English as the official language is another big advantage). If nothing bad happens there, I expect India to rival the US as a superpower, perhaps about 20 years from now.
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(Edited)

The US has suffered very rapid fertility decline since 2008 and now their TFR is only 1.6, which is pretty bad. Yes they still have immigration, but the quality is poor with large amounts of illegals they have lost control of their borders.

Civilisational decline is generally accompanied by monetary debasement, rather than obvious economic decline. Neither the British nor Roman Empire had obvious economic decline shortly before their fall.

A series of military failures also presages the decline of Empire and the USA certainly fits this. They haven't actually conclusively won even a mid-size war since WWII. Korean (draw), Vietnam (loss), Iraq I (partial win), Iraq II (loss), Afghanistan (loss), Ukraine (losing).

Thus the US does fit into the pattern of an Empire in decline.

Almost everything you write is well reasoned and rational so your completely unsupported polemic statement that Russian growth is dead cat bounce really stands out.

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The US has suffered very rapid fertility decline since 2008 and now their TFR is only 1.6, which is pretty bad.

  • Yes, that's one data point - that may have bad consequences some 20 years in the future. Russia's demography is currently bad over every single generation. Plus, their data are probably fake. Plus, they currently lose their future working population.

Civilisational decline is generally accompanied by monetary debasement, rather than obvious economic decline. Neither the British nor Roman Empire had obvious economic decline shortly before their fall.

  • Depending on when you date the fall of the Roman Empire, there were several economic declines, the worst spanned over nearly the whole third century AD (affecting population size and economic growth, plus severe currency debasement).

Concerning the dead cat bounce of Russia, let's wait for some months and then take a fresh look at the war. I currently see Russia losing on all fronts: morally, militarily, economically, demographically, losing influence in other countries (Armenia, some countries in Africa, due to less Wagner mercenaries).

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While some countries manipulate their economic data (eg China and the US), especially for short term political gains, I've never heard of any country faking or manipulating demographic data because:

  1. its much harder to do - babies are real things with real needs and consequences;
  2. their is no political gain, as voters pay little attention to this very important issue and some think less babies is better.

Russia showed a very substantial and clear increase in fertility (from a very low base of 1.2) from shortly after Putin took power for at least 15 years, peaking at 1.8, with a slight falling off to 1.6 recently). Indeed it is an extraordinary achievement that no other large country has been able to duplicate.

This big success and the methods used should be studied by Europe and East Asia to save themselves. But as usual, Russian achievements are rarely recognised by the self-obsessed and arrogant West.

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