Superpower USA? Unipolar, bipolar or multipolar world?
| Dear Hiveans | Liebe Hiver | Queridos Hiveanos |
|---|---|---|
| Some days ago I was asked on Hive if I would be OK with the USA being the only superpower in the world, a superpower that can impose its will on other countries. | Vor einigen Tagen wurde ich auf Hive gefragt, ob ich damit einverstanden wäre, dass die USA die einzige Supermacht der Welt sind, eine Supermacht, die anderen Ländern ihren Willen aufzwingen kann. | Hace unos días me preguntaron en Hive si me parecería bien que Estados Unidos fuera la única superpotencia del mundo, una superpotencia que puede imponer su voluntad a otros países. |
| In my opinion the USA are already the only one real superpower. Both Russia and China are papertigers (e.g. GDP_wiki) and in decline. Europe is disunited and also in decline both demographically and economically, for at least the next 15 years. | Meiner Meinung nach sind die USA bereits die einzige echte Supermacht. Sowohl Russland als auch China sind Papiertiger (z.B. GDP_wiki) und im Niedergang begriffen. Europa ist uneinig und ebenfalls im Niedergang, demografisch und wirtschaftlich, zumindest für die nächsten 15 Jahre. | En mi opinión, Estados Unidos ya es la única superpotencia real. Tanto Rusia como China son ratones de papel (GDP_wiki) y están en declive. Europa está desunida y también en declive, tanto demográfica como económicamente, durante al menos los próximos 15 años. |
| I don't like some behemoth with a global monopoly on the use of force. But I do like stability. Historically I would say that times where there was one superpower (in a certain territory) were rather stable, e.g. the Pax Romana (wiki) or the Pax Britannica (wiki), far for from perfect but relatively stable. And compared to former superpowers (e.g. during Pax Ottomana) I see the USA as probably the most benevolent one (or least malevolent). | Ich mag keinen Giganten mit einem globalen Gewaltmonopol. Aber ich mag Stabilität. Aus historischer Sicht würde ich sagen, dass Zeiten, in denen es eine Supermacht (in einem bestimmten Gebiet) gab, ziemlich stabil waren, z.B. die Pax Romana (wiki) oder Britannica (wiki), alles andere als perfekt, aber relativ stabil. Und im Vergleich zu früheren Großmächten (z. B. während der Pax Ottomana) sehe ich die USA als die wohlwollendste (oder am wenigsten böswillige). | No me gusta un monstruo con el monopolio mundial del uso de la fuerza. Pero sí me gusta la estabilidad. Históricamente diría que las épocas en las que había una superpotencia (en un territorio determinado) eran bastante estables, por ejemplo la Pax Romana (wiki) o la Pax Britannica (wiki), lejos de ser perfectas pero relativamente estables. Y en comparación con las antiguas superpotencias (por ejemplo, durante la Pax Ottomana) veo a EE.UU. probablemente como la más benévola (o la menos malévola). |
| Stable times are the basis for wealth creation. Men don't have to fight in a war, but can work productively, either making food, producing stuff or offering services. Only if enough people can work in agriculture, enough food can be supplied, so that other people can be freed of agricultural work, and have time to do research and generate progress. | Stabilität ist die Grundlage für die Schaffung von Wohlstand. Männer müssen nicht im Krieg kämpfen, sondern können produktiv arbeiten, indem sie entweder Lebensmittel herstellen, Güter produzieren oder Dienstleistungen anbieten. Nur wenn genügend Menschen produktiv arbeiten können, können genügend Lebensmittel geliefert werden, so dass andere Menschen von landwirtschaftlicher Arbeit befreit werden und Zeit haben, für Forschung und Fortschritt. | Estabilidad es la base de la creación de riqueza. Los hombres no tienen que luchar en una guerra, sino que pueden trabajar productivamente, ya sea fabricando alimentos, produciendo cosas u ofreciendo servicios. Sólo si un número suficiente de personas puede trabajar en la agricultura, se podrá suministrar suficiente comida, de modo que otras personas puedan liberarse del trabajo agrícola y tener tiempo para investigar y aportar progreso. |
| What happens if a superpower is "overthrown"? This seldomly happens via a peaceful handing over of power, but through wars, disease/epidemics and sometimes an outright downfall of civilization, e.g. the Roman decline by around 476 AD or the British Empire which ended with two World Wars and tens of millions of dead. | Was passiert, wenn eine Supermacht "gestürzt" wird? Dies geschieht selten durch eine friedliche Machtübergabe, sondern durch Kriege, Epidemien und manchmal durch einen völligen Untergang der Zivilisation, z.B. den Niedergang Roms um 476 n. Chr. oder des britischen Empire, der mit zwei Weltkriegen und zig Millionen Toten endete. | ¿Qué ocurre si una superpotencia es "derrocada"? Esto rara vez ocurre mediante un traspaso pacífico del poder, sino a través de guerras, enfermedades/epidemias y, a veces, una caída total de la civilización, por ejemplo, el declive romano hacia el 476 d.C. o el Imperio Británico, que acabó con dos guerras mundiales y decenas de millones de muertos. |
| So how could I hope for a sudden decline of American power / hegemony? | Wie könnte ich also auf einen plötzlichen Niedergang der amerikanischen Hegemonie hoffen? | Entonces, ¿cómo podría esperar un declive repentino del hegemonía estadounidense? |
| So no. I hope for stability in international politics which means preservation of the status quo (USA as policeman of the world). Within this stability I hope for many small countries to stand up to the USA if they try to force their will on them (e.g. concerning minimum taxes or forbidding trade with third countries). And I hope for creative people to generate progress that - step by step - reduces the power of governments (e.g. Bitcoin, 3d printing, drones for self-defense). | Also nein. Ich hoffe auf Stabilität in der internationalen Politik, d.h. auf den Erhalt des Status quo (USA als Weltpolizist). Innerhalb dieser Stabilität hoffe ich auf viele kleine Länder, die sich gegen die USA wehren, wenn diese versuchen, ihnen ihren Willen aufzuzwingen (z.B. bei Mindeststeuern oder dem Verbot des Handels mit Drittländern). Und ich hoffe auf kreative Menschen, die Fortschritt schaffen, der die Macht der Regierungen Schritt für Schritt reduziert (z.B. Bitcoin, 3D-Druck, Drohnen zur Selbstverteidigung). | Así que no. Espero estabilidad en la política internacional, lo que significa preservar el statu quo (EE.UU. como policía del mundo). Dentro de esta estabilidad, espero que muchos países pequeños se enfrenten a los EE.UU. si intentan imponerles su voluntad (por ejemplo, en relación con los impuestos mínimos o la prohibición del comercio con terceros países). Y espero que la gente creativa genere progreso que -paso a paso- reduzca el poder de los gobiernos (por ejemplo, Bitcoin, impresión 3d, drones para autodefensa). |
| In my opinion that is the only viable way towards decentralization of power. The last thing I hope for is that second-rate superpowers invade other countries to accumulate power (via resources and people) and - by that - present a significant counterpole to the USA. | Das ist meiner Meinung nach der einzig gangbare Weg zur Dezentralisierung der Macht. Das Letzte, was ich mir wünsche, ist, dass zweitklassige Supermächte in andere Länder einmarschieren, um Macht (über Ressourcen und Menschen) zu akkumulieren und damit einen Gegenpol zu den USA zu bilden. | En mi opinión, ése es el único camino viable hacia la descentralización del poder. Lo último que espero es que superpotencias de segunda fila invadan otros países para acumular poder (mediante recursos y personas) y -con ello- presentar un contrapoder a EEUU. |
| And regardless of what I hope for (German saying: "Life is no pony farm."), there is currently no equal opponent to the US. So we will have to live with them. | Und unabhängig davon, was ich mir erhoffe (Das Leben ist kein Ponyhof), gibt es derzeit keinen ebenbürtigen Gegner für die USA. Wir werden also mit ihnen leben müssen. | E independientemente de lo que yo espere (dicho alemán: "La vida no es una granja de ponis"), actualmente no existe un adversario igual a Estados Unidos. Así que tendremos que convivir con ellos. |
Have a great day,
zuerich
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In my opinion, china isn't in declined state... Economically or other way.. it is doing good and pretty more stable than USA..
Like, de-dollarization is happening.. there was a time when countries used to think twice before ditching US dollar but not anymore...
It's like USA losing that charm and but still it's not late.. their politics is always hard to predict.. I see china might takeover that superpower.. Russia stands no chance in this superpower debate..
China’s demographics are horrendous. Maybe one could argue that it isn’t currently in decline, but even that’s questionable. FWIW I think it’s quite possible that a steep downward spiral is in the cards.
Thanks for your comment!
I don't think De-dollarization is really happening. Yes, China and Russia and some other countries want do dedollarize, but I doubt they can.
I think you need to judge Empires by what they leave behind when they fall or leave.
On this basis the British Empire is by far the most benevolent Empire as it left behind, the civil, service, law and courts, the basics of democracy, tea and cricket.
See India, USA, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Kenya and even Israel and South Africa.
In contrast the United States has left behind chaos and ashes.
See Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Vietnam (for a long time after the war).
The Belgians also left a huge mess.
The Romans left behind a valuable legacy too, but I think the British record is the best because of the way they handed over the keys to Empire (to the USA) in a gracious, orderly manner. One might argue that the Eastern Roman Empire did the same, but the Western Roman Empire clearly collapsed.
In contrast, the USA is behaving like a petulant child who has lost his toy in dealing with its decline and loss of power and influence.
While I agree with you that stability is important, it is also important to acknowledge that all Empires rise and fall and that the USA in clearly in long term civilisational decline on every measure.
China is rising or has already peaked (because of terrible fertility) and Russia is rising again. Clearly its nadir was in 1989 and it has expanded considerably both geographically (re-conquering parts of Georgia, Crimea and now eastern Ukraine) and creating strong bonds with former Soviet states such as Belorusia, Turkmenistan, Kazakstan etc.
But the biggest, most important and often forgotten rising power is India.
Already the largest population, largest democracy, 3rd largest economy (PPP basis) and 5th largest (GDP basis) and fastest growing major power both demographically and economically.
The US has suffered very rapid fertility decline since 2008 and now their TFR is only 1.6, which is pretty bad. Yes they still have immigration, but the quality is poor with large amounts of illegals they have lost control of their borders.
Civilisational decline is generally accompanied by monetary debasement, rather than obvious economic decline. Neither the British nor Roman Empire had obvious economic decline shortly before their fall.
A series of military failures also presages the decline of Empire and the USA certainly fits this. They haven't actually conclusively won even a mid-size war since WWII. Korean (draw), Vietnam (loss), Iraq I (partial win), Iraq II (loss), Afghanistan (loss), Ukraine (losing).
Thus the US does fit into the pattern of an Empire in decline.
Almost everything you write is well reasoned and rational so your completely unsupported polemic statement that Russian growth is dead cat bounce really stands out.
Concerning the dead cat bounce of Russia, let's wait for some months and then take a fresh look at the war. I currently see Russia losing on all fronts: morally, militarily, economically, demographically, losing influence in other countries (Armenia, some countries in Africa, due to less Wagner mercenaries).
While some countries manipulate their economic data (eg China and the US), especially for short term political gains, I've never heard of any country faking or manipulating demographic data because:
Russia showed a very substantial and clear increase in fertility (from a very low base of 1.2) from shortly after Putin took power for at least 15 years, peaking at 1.8, with a slight falling off to 1.6 recently). Indeed it is an extraordinary achievement that no other large country has been able to duplicate.
This big success and the methods used should be studied by Europe and East Asia to save themselves. But as usual, Russian achievements are rarely recognised by the self-obsessed and arrogant West.
I like the drone for the security part. Being able to defend oneself against any form of force or attack is the first step to decrease the power of the government and elites.
We sure need to have a way of questioning the super-powerful states like the US but that doesn't mean they haven't done some good to stabilize the world too.
It's just that power if left unchecked and unquestioned for a long time, it eventually corrupts.
If we have models like Bitcoin for financial protection , drones for physical protection and 3d printing readily at every nation states and individuals disposal then we can have a more stable world where the super powerful are just slightly powerful than the other.
Even if they are not as big or powerful as the Us, they can still hold their ground to stand for what is right and not just go do anything the US wants them to do or pay.
Good points 👍
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Peace is what we need! The world is currently ruled by megalomaniacs and tyrants.
I believe that the US is on the decline and the contest to become a superpower would push these power crazy tyrants to do crazy stuff.
The Russian invasion is just the beginning of this madness.
It very much seems that we are headed towards a multi polar world. When you look at de-dollarization as well as the rise of major economies in Asia, Africa, and South America the world is going to look different over the next decade.
Stability does offer a wealth creation, but change or evolution also offer tremendous opportunity. I don’t know what the world will look like exactly, but I do believe being involved with Web3 and at the forefront of technology will help to take advantage of that opportunity.
Great post and breakdown!