RE: The end of Russia as we know it
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"What new countries will emerge?"
Don't underestimate the fear of esp. European politicians of instability (& nuclear weapons in rogue hands). Scholz et al. are already doing their best to dampen Russia's fall. It's quite likely that they will also support the Russian regime (no matter how genocidal) if Russia appears to be falling apart.
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Yes. When Russia is really shaking or wavering, it may be too late for European countries to stop a collapse. In any case what a time to be alive.