So When Recession?
My guess would be that by September, the numbers will be revised downward into recession territory. But by then, the goal post will be moved (that's just my opinion based on the upcoming elections). But who knows. Economists did not see the record QE coming after 2008, nor the negative interest rate maneuver in Europe, or the apparent bond buying by ECB and Fed to stabilize the 10yr yield. So who knows what other tricks they've got to keep it all going. I do think the milkshake theory appears to be happening. So that could buoy the US economy for a while longer. But Europe is hosed. Note don't take this post seriously as I'm not financial expert.
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