Is hive dead?

Is hive dead, yes a question that's provocating?

Yes, it is. From development, it is far away from dead. But the social part lacks massive. For 4 years nothing dramatic happened.

Even the bullrun doesn't change anything on this. Even worse is, after the marketing campaign + Bullrun combi, we don't see a lot of new users.

New Users that use Hive to post content. No matter what content.

This lacks massive but is also the main purpose of the chain.

Posts + comments have also declined over the past months.

The biggest problem i see, therer is no growth factor at all. With all spam and shitcomments, the number is super low.

Maybe around 3500 post a day.

The daily accounts transacting also not increase. It slightly declines. Most of this are probably bots.

Not real users.

IMO this shows Proof of brain failed. Autovotes are far away from Proof of brain.

It makes also the distrepution a big cyclejerk. Where is here any value?

The distribution phase is IMO over and rewards should slowly be removed. So hive can become a gas and government token.

Since Hive is born, we see some increase in daily account transacting. But to be real, 16000 transactions are less than most Facebook groups have posts or interactions daily.

Social works on hive but the cant scale and is not user-friendly. Overall it is maybe not the smartest thing to use the superior tech that can handle long posts on-chain for posts.

Posts could be an alternative use for communication, but it's also a big waste.

This shows wallet creation. The peak of wallet creation is 99% Splinterlands.

All other social dapps combined are the other 1%.

Splinterlands burns in this timeframe a massive amount of hive, for the new wallets.

What would be hive without Splinterlands? IMO without splinterlands the Bullrun would be very different from hive. Fewer Attention and less price action.

Splinterlands is the proof the chain is superior. No other chain could handle this. But it also shows Hive doesn't support the dapps.

3 hive for wallet creation is to much. How many new users could be here if a wallet would cost 0,1 Hive- 0,5 Hive?

For that low prices, even browser games could be run for a net + on hive.

How to Value hive?

Social is not the value.

The community has value but doesn't grow. It's not a lie if we say the community = value. But it is also wrong.

Value = future growth. If the community does not grow or offer a place to build, its bad for value. I would say it is really difficult to build on hive.

A lot of political problems, like the onboarding fee working like a paywall against onboarding and expanding.

Other chains are 100x more expensive, but give the user the ability to FOMO or invest with the "free wallet".

So why does Hive has a 180 Million USD market cap?

IMO a mix of market conditions/ greed + Tech.

The Tech in combination with the little but hardcore community stores the value. The chance of an expanding user base.

The chance of Superior User experience for crypto applications ( not social). And the backbone of WEB3 apps.

This is IMO the reason why the hive is valuable. All about the future and the build. Less the current status.

Conclusion

It will be a very long way before Hive will really expand in all paths. Buidl on the tech is something always happen on Hive. Improvements.

Some development is very slow. But on the other hand, Hive has the chance to build because of the little user base. It would be impossible to chance core code with 100x more users without causing massive problems.

ETH 2.0 is the perfect proof.

Hive value = superior Tech + Community + a real future vision.

Hive has for now no money-crapping tech " Fintech". Only HBD but i would call it meh and not superior.

If this chance to more " social and finance" + "universal internet login". Something big could happen.

There are also a lot of side projects that maybe make it or die in the next 12 month.

Let's see what happens!

Anyway have a nice day!

Thanks to @penguinpablo for valuable data.